MISSION
STTK provides protection for the future and for the quality of life
VISION
STTK is a valued and interesting modern organisation which acts on behalf of its membership
VALUES
Transparency, equality, caring and freedom from prejudice are the core values of STTK.
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The financial crisis
The malfunctioning of the financial markets, which originated in the United States sub-prime mortgage markets, developed towards the end of last year into a global financial crisis and a deep economic recession. In the background of this recession we have the imbalance which has prevailed in the world economy for many years as the emerging economies, China for example, have financed consumption in the Western industrialised countries, for example the U.S.A.
The economy is this year declining by some percentage points in all large economic areas: in the United States, in the EU and in Japan. Of the emerging economies, in China and in India, growth will slow but will nevertheless, even this year, continue at a rate of 5 percent. This will not be sufficient however to drive global economic growth and therefore the world economy will decline this year by a total of some 1.5 percent. Due to the problems of lending no quick recovery in the world economy can be expected. It is estimated that no international economic recovery will materialise before 2010, and even when it starts any such recovery is expected to be slow.
The Finnish economy will decline by 5 percent this year. There has been a significant reduction in export and investment. Private consumption will also decline to some extent as consumers will be more careful in their spending. Unemployment will rise to approaching 9 percent this year in comparison to last year's 6.5 percent. Employment will weaken even further next year when the unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent. In 2010 economic growth in Finland will probably not exceed 0.5 percent.
The Finnish national economy is dependent on exports and therefore economic recovery in Finland is influenced by international economic development. The indicators which measure the development of the Finnish economy (companies, consumers), have recently shown some stabilisation, which supports the view that any major decline in production may now be in the past. However, at present it looks as though the Finnish economy will not achieve a more steady growth before 2011 and even then only after the economies of the core export countries have recovered.
LONG TERM MEGA TRENDS
Globalisation
The changes, due to the development of technology, in the international division of labour and the reduction in the importance of geography and of the borders between nation states, continue strongly, although this trend is beginning to follow a particular path more clearly than hitherto. China and India are clearly and increasingly becoming the drivers of the world economy, whilst the economic growth of the industrialised countries, following the recession, remains slow. The emerging industrial states are increasingly entering the world markets with their own products. Business and production will continue to seek their most suitable location at any given time and this emphasises the significance of Asia and Latin-America in parallel with the United States and Europe.
The structural change in the economy generates the so-called creative destruction. Annually, some 200,000 jobs will disappear in Finland, and this figure will slowly increase. The same number of new jobs - or perhaps even a slightly greater number - will be created.
The global trade in services will grow rapidly and this will lead to a growth in the supply of these, even in Finland. The reorganisation of companies and production will continue and may even increase in Finland. The transferring of professional work to countries with lower labour costs will accelerate. Career changes and moving from one workplace to another will become ever more commonplace, thus increasing mobility in the labour market.
The availability of energy, a shortage of foodstuffs, pollution and climate change are examples of worldwide challenges, which will require a globally stronger political stand. Unsound business policies, growing inequality, social problems, shortages of food, hunger, violation of human rights, environmental problems and changes in the cost of raw materials could cause unrest and weaken growth around the globe.
Bringing influence to bear by means of civic activities and via the NGO's will increase. The voting percentage has declined in Finland and this may lead to problems regarding democracy. At the same time new communication technology strengthens civil society by, for example, creating opportunities for controlling the activities of global companies. This may lead to the development of new values in business. Ethical awareness will increase and this will mean a growth in the strength, both of the NGO's and the consumers.
In future, the international labour movement will improve its cooperation and will clarify its division of activities. Like the civic organisations, the labour movement will increasingly utilise the various opportunities in communication, in sharing experiences and in setting goals which are now offered by new communication technology. The labour movement, the consumer movement and the NGO's, together benefit the rights of the employees, human rights and responsible consumerism. The labour movement membership, both nationally and internationally, will again start to grow.
The European union
The new EU core treaty will most likely come into force by the end of 2009 and this will provide a more solid foundation for the development of the EU. The treaty will strengthen the formal status of the European Parliament, which means that the division of power between the various political groupings will gain in importance. On the other hand, the Governments of the member states will be bringing more influence and pressure to bear on the European Parliamentary Groups. The treaty will strengthen the social foundations of the EU and will also strengthen the status of the labour market organisations as social dialogue will be acknowledged as an official method of negotiation within the EU.
Protectionism has increased as a result of the financial crisis and this in turn weakens the decision making ability of the EU. It is possible that internal crises will lessen the political credibility of the EU. The drafting of the budgetary guidelines for the forthcoming financial term will become a contentious issue.
The digestion of the recent extensive enlargement of the EU continues. It is difficult to gain the political unanimity which is required for the realisation of the objectives of the Lisbon Treaty and along with the Treaty the implementation of a common globalisation strategy. Nation states and regions are competing with company legislation and the innovation environment, both externally and within Europe. The policy of EU cohesion is not sufficiently robust and as a result of this areas of low production costs are created. These areas compete on the grounds of their labour costs, the terms and conditions of employment and taxation .
European social services and the mobility of these within the Union will gradually progress. The problems associated with economic development provide challenges to social development. In addition to EU legislation, the use of transparent coordination will increase. Both the trade union movement and the NGO's will have greater opportunities to bring their influence to bear and, with more substantial joint coordination and the exchange of information, they will produce concrete results. Experience and information on the progress of social protection and on the world of work in other member states, will be utilised at national levels elsewhere in campaigns for change. In this way, social provisions in Europe progress additionally through the work carried out on a national level.
The internal market policy of the EU is more favourable to the employer than to the employee and the constant emphasis on the free mobility of services is a challenge in the defence of the rights of the workers.
The harmonisation of taxation policies is currently on hold, but the expansion of the euro area continues. At present the member states view the collective rights of the workers more critically than hitherto as they are competing for jobs with other member states. This creates the risk that the standard of pay will go down, job security will weaken and the right of collective action, such as the right to take industrial action, will be curtailed.
The neighbouring regions
Russia has a great impact both on Finland and on the EU economically, politically and socially. Human rights and democracy show no signs of improvement in Russia. As a result of the financial crisis the Russian people may become significantly less satisfied with those in power.
In spite of international pressure, the progress of democracy in Belarus has remained feeble. Various initiatives are currently being implemented in order to end the isolation of Belarus from international cooperation. The International Labour Organisation, ILO, has presented 12 recommendations to the government of Belarus but nevertheless only a few of these have been implemented. Workers in Belarus are still pressurised into leaving the membership of the free trade union movement, which currently has less than 10,000 members, when those trades unions which are under the control of Lukashenko has a membership of some four million.
Democracy and the national economies have developed fast in the Baltic countries since they gained independence and membership of the EU. However, from the early 1990's the numbers of trade union members have fallen to less than 10 percent in Estonia and Lithuania and to just over 10 percent in Latvia. Due to the financial crisis, living conditions have deteriorated rapidly in these countries and trade union membership has fallen even further. The standard of social security has been low and it is now being cut even further as a result of the economic problems. In addition, wages and salaries are being cut with no recourse to bargaining.
The climate and energy
Climate change is politically visible in two ways. On the one hand we need decisions which will slow the rate of global warming. On the other hand we need measures which will help us to adapt to climate change. The basic elements of life in the welfare countries of the west will be altered by climate change and higher energy costs. Changes in consumer, transport and housing policies will be the greatest for 50 years. The manufacture of goods will become more expensive and production will be transferred closer to the point of consumption. Similarly, it is likely that the cost of food will increase.
The need for renewable forms of energy and for the transfer of energy, enables innovation and the development of new technology and new types of production. The use of coal as a source of energy continues, due to availability and large coal deposits, although the elimination of the carbon dioxide which is released during the production process will steeply increase the cost of energy.
The reduction of climate change will increase the cost of energy and this in turn will weaken the operational conditions of any energy intensive sector of industry. Higher prices which are caused by a tax on the use of energy is a distribution of wealth issue and, from the trade union perspective, the restructuring of production due to climate change is a training and job security issue. However, it is clear that climate change will also generate new jobs. Investment in research and product development will most likely bring fast returns.
The restructuring of the Finnish economy
The duration of the current recession is open to debate. The impact on the public finances will nevertheless be significant and these will move from a surplus to a deficit. This will narrow the future operational opportunities of the public sector. The role of the public finances will become stronger as will the resultant ameliorative effect on the economic downturn. The public finances will also be the driver of an increase in the restructuring of business and industry.
The industrial manufacturing sector will decline further and the significance of the service sector as a source of employment will increase. Service jobs will also increase within industrial manufacturing. The role of the public sector as the provider of services will decline but its role as a controller of rights will increase. The creation of new services will bring forth various new partnership models for both the public and private sectors and this will obscure the separation between the two sectors. A greater number of small companies will be started.
The internationalisation of ownership will continue. Industrial investment will be focused on a more efficient utilisation of capacity and on a re-arrangement of production. Stricter demands on the efficient use of energy, the various types of renewable energy being favoured, environmental standards and trade in emissions will all stimulate services and manufacturing which in turn will generate new innovation. Investment in humane capital will increase. With economic restructuring, a higher standard of skills will be required in every job.
Ageing population
The percentage of the population of older people and those who are about to retire is growing and the availability of qualified labour in every sector is falling. This causes competition for the engagement of skilled workers, the loss of workplace loyalty, and in addition, even the outsourcing of jobs. There have been attempts to encourage employment based immigration.
During the next 20 years the population will age at a faster rate in Finland than anywhere else in Europe. The demand for health and care services and the increased cost of providing pensions will inevitably lead to higher taxation. As care provisions weaken, productivity and the impact level of work must be increased and the career path must be lengthened.
Aging is therefore a challenge, but it also provides opportunities, as Finland will be the first European country to develop, and to use in practice, those social innovations which will provide an answer to the problem of an ageing population.
WEAK SIGNALS
Leisure time will be increasingly valued whilst the commitment to work and to the world of work will decline.
The percentage of the population with an immigrant background will grow. This will make workplaces more multicultural, but at the same time racism may raise its head.
STRATEGY OBJECTIVES
Professional employees will be successful and will fare well in the changing world and work environment.
The trade union movement will be an influential entity, on both the national and international levels.
Members enjoy the right and the opportunity to participate in and bring influence to bear on societal change.
The cooperation of the professional employees and the internal harmony of their union movement will grow and become an influential societal force.